In the wake of the global pandemic, the landscape of the new mover and new homeowner markets has undergone significant changes. Amidst the backdrop of unpredictable interest rates, labor markets adapting to looming recession concerns, and the persistent volatility of home prices, the patterns observed in the new mover segment during 2023 represent a significant departure from the patterns witnessed in 2021 and 2022. As we navigate these evolving dynamics, it becomes imperative to assess the implications of these changes for your strategic new mover marketing initiatives set to unfold in 2024. While there was a lack of homes being listed for sale, there is not a lack in demand for home buyers.

All of the data used in this article is aggregated by Focus USA and pulled from over 21 unique feeds, including deeds from over 3,100 county courthouses, new phone/internet connections, utility connections, and change of address requests from sources such as publications and subscription services. We validate and verify new mover information through intensive hygiene to ensure precision and reliability. 

Looking back to 2023, we observe notable trends in home sale listings. Before 2020, these listings typically fluctuated within a modest range of 1% to 4% year-over-year (YoY) changes. However, the real estate landscape took a significant turn in 2021, marked by a substantial surge in new home listings, with a remarkable 19% increase compared to 2020, which had already seen a 4% uptick from the previous year, 2019. In stark contrast, 2022 witnessed a sharp reversal of this trend, as new homes on the market had a noteworthy decline of 7%. The trend further compounded in 2023, plummeting by another 24% in home listings. 

While moves were down, we still found some interesting trends.  The top-ranked new mover states in the country based on net adjusted population were South Carolina, Delaware, Idaho, Maine, and Montana. 

Metro Movers

The northern New Jersey and New York City metropolitan areas persist in maintaining their status as the largest declining Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in the United States. Meanwhile, California accounts for 50% of the MSAs ranked in the bottom 10.  

With New York and California losing more residents yearly, we wondered what other states were attracting former Manhattanites and LA residents.

Here are the top 10 move-out routes from those states.

In 2023, we saw a few migration patterns take hold. Here are the most frequent out-of-state new mover routes of the year.

There is still an appetite for new homebuyers. Overall, the noteworthy migration pattern transitioned from frequent to status quo, primarily influenced by the pronounced rise in housing costs and interest rates. While lifestyle considerations undoubtedly play a role in new mover decisions, the predominant driving force in the broader new mover market is unmistakably financial in nature.

As we begin to move toward the prospects of 2024, our key take away is that there is still a high demand for new home buyers that are likely just biding their time. Once we see interest rates and home prices begin to take strides to normalize, we expect another surge of new home buyers will jump in. Which means that as marketers, now might be the perfect time to hone your new mover marketing strategy for the year ahead so that you are able to capitalize on the inevitable surge of new movers coming to a city near you!