A 2023 New Mover Year-End Review

The Intersection of Housing, Economics, and Migration

In the wake of the global pandemic, the landscape of the new mover and new homeowner markets has undergone significant changes. Amidst the backdrop of unpredictable interest rates, labor markets adapting to looming recession concerns, and the persistent volatility of home prices, the patterns observed in the new mover segment during 2023 represent a significant departure from the patterns witnessed in 2021 and 2022. As we navigate these evolving dynamics, it becomes imperative to assess the implications of these changes for your strategic new mover marketing initiatives set to unfold in 2024. While there was a lack of homes being listed for sale, there is not a lack in demand for home buyers.

US Net New Movers

Click to View County Level Data

ABOUT THE DATA

All of the data used in this article is aggregated by Focus USA and pulled from over 21 unique feeds, including deeds from over 3,100 county courthouses, new phone/internet connections, utility connections, and change of address requests from sources such as publications and subscription services. We validate and verify new mover information through intensive hygiene to ensure precision and reliability. 

TOTAL NEW MOVERS BY YEAR

In 2023, the new mover and new homeowner market began to decelerate. At the end of 2022, the United States had witnessed a noteworthy influx of more than 32.1 million new movers. However, by the end of 2023, this figure had decreased significantly, registering a reduction of over 20%, with the new mover count at 25.6 million.

YEAR MOVES
2023  25,682,253
2022  32,139,249
2021  35,309,856
2020  30,652,591

OVERALL MIGRATION AND HOME PRICE TRENDS

From 2016 to 2020, the real estate market experienced a consistent upward trajectory in home prices, with annual increases between 4.25% and 7.88%. This period reflected a sustained growth trend in housing values that were reflected in home sales prices.

Following the onset of the pandemic in 2020, a significant shift occurred. In 2020, the market witnessed an extraordinary surge in home sale prices, marking a remarkable increase of 16.3% compared to the previous year, 2019. This trend continued, with home prices rising by another substantial 11.4% in 2021 and again by 9.42% in 2022.

However, the momentum appears to have slowed in 2023, as home prices have begun to stabilize, registering a small decrease in overall home prices by 2.63%. This shift in pricing dynamics signifies a notable halt from the rapid home price increases observed in the immediate post-pandemic years. Does this reflect a signal for anticipated decreased price points in 2024?


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INVENTORY – OR LACK THERE OF

Looking back to 2023, we observe notable trends in home sale listings. Before 2020, these listings typically fluctuated within a modest range of 1% to 4% year-over-year (YoY) changes. However, the real estate landscape took a significant turn in 2021, marked by a substantial surge in new home listings, with a remarkable 19% increase compared to 2020, which had already seen a 4% uptick from the previous year, 2019. In stark contrast, 2022 witnessed a sharp reversal of this trend, as new homes on the market had a noteworthy decline of 7%. The trend further compounded in 2023, plummeting by another 24% in home listings. 


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STATES ON THE RISE

While moves were down, we still found some interesting trends.  The top-ranked new mover states in the country based on net adjusted population were South Carolina, Delaware, Idaho, Maine, and Montana. 

Out of State Moves Into

South Carolina

South Carolina is experiencing significant growth, a trend that has persisted year over year for more than five years. Key destinations in South Carolina contributing to this growth include Myrtle Beach, South Carolina (the fastest-growing Metropolitan Statistical Area in the county), Greenville, South Carolina, and Charleston, South Carolina.

Out of State Moves Into

Florida

Florida, another top gross new mover state, seems to continue to attract new movers from far and wide. While most states see incoming residents from neighboring states/regions, new movers from all over the country seem to flock to the Sunshine State.

MSA Mover Ranking

Metro Movers

The northern New Jersey and New York City metropolitan areas persist in maintaining their status as the largest declining Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in the United States. Meanwhile, California accounts for 50% of the MSAs ranked in the bottom 10.  

Moving Out Of

New York

Moving Out Of

California

Tracking Move-Out Routes From NY & CA

With New York and California losing more residents yearly, we wondered what other states were attracting former Manhattanites and LA residents.

Here are the top 10 move-out routes from those states.

From New York to…
Move-out Routes Moves
NY -> FL  41,095
NY -> NJ  23,506
NY -> CA  15,473
NY -> PA  14,156
NY -> TX  13,514
NY -> NC  12,821
NY -> CT  9,952
NY -> VA  8,170
NY -> GA  8,072
NY -> SC  7,311
From California to…
Move-out Routes Moves
CA -> TX  40,172 
CA -> AZ  24,884 
CA -> FL  23,731 
CA -> NV  21,515 
CA -> WA  19,391 
CA -> OR  14,709 
CA -> NY  13,835 
CA -> CO  11,868 
CA -> TN  11,187 
CA -> NC  11,022 

In 2023, we saw a few migration patterns take hold. Here are the most frequent out-of-state new mover routes of the year.

CONCLUSION

There is still an appetite for new homebuyers. Overall, the noteworthy migration pattern transitioned from frequent to status quo, primarily influenced by the pronounced rise in housing costs and interest rates. While lifestyle considerations undoubtedly play a role in new mover decisions, the predominant driving force in the broader new mover market is unmistakably financial in nature.

As we begin to move toward the prospects of 2024, our key take away is that there is still a high demand for new home buyers that are likely just biding their time. Once we see interest rates and home prices begin to take strides to normalize, we expect another surge of new home buyers will jump in. Which means that as marketers, now might be the perfect time to hone your new mover marketing strategy for the year ahead so that you are able to capitalize on the inevitable surge of new movers coming to a city near you!

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